AI infrastructure buildout accelerates on multiple fronts: GPT-5.5 launches with material capability step, GPU scarcity persists into 2026, and Intel's CPU foundry thesis validates with margin beats. Semis dominate as software lags — the "Software vs Semis" spread hits new all-time lows. NVIDIA closes at first record since October.
Intel's CPU foundry thesis is crystallizing. Lenovo's data center head explicitly confirmed AI datacenter boom is "straining supply of high-end server CPUs." Intel IR disclosed unexpected margin lift from yield salvage — edge-die previously binned down were sold into usable SKUs as demand absorbed everything. Lip-Bu Tan credited internal changes for "continued and steady progress." MXL +3.6x in three weeks. ASML completely sold out. Intel market cap still below TSM — a recurring observer note: "should probably buy some INTC today, its market cap is still below TSM." ASML needs Carl Zeiss to expand capacity.
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↳ Multiple calls on AMD manufacturing at Intel Foundry — capacity is scarce, Intel has floor space to ramp.
Microsoft cloud customers face GPU wait times extending to end of 2026 as Azure prioritizes internal projects and large clients. OpenAI's chief scientist Jakub Pachocki: "significant improvements" in 1-2 months, "extremely significant" in 3-6 months — and "there's not going to be enough compute in the world to meet demand." GPU useful lives extending from 5 to 7-8 years; renewal prices rising. Cloud margins expanding in clusters and memory; Nvidia holds ~75% GM. Suppliers collecting large prepayments, lowering invested capital.
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↳ Google committed up to $40B more to Anthropic — $10B at $350B mark, $30B milestone-based. Part of $65B Anthropic raised this month.
GPT-5.5 (internally "Spud") live in API, Copilot, and Codex. OpenAI calls it "one of the most exciting launch weeks in OpenAI's history." Greg Brockman confirmed Spud is a new pretrained model, two years in development — expect "earth-shattering advances" in three months as post-training and RL continues. OpenAI's Altman: "There’s not going to be enough compute in the world to meet the demand." DeepSeek V4 (1.6T Pro, 284B Flash) supported on InferenceX Day 0. Early benchmarks show DeepSeek near Claude in text coding but lagging Claude 4.7 and Codex 5.5 in multimodal. Claude Opus 4.7 usage rebounding after earlier user reports of issues.
↳ Anonymous testing shows GPT-5.5 "a significant jump where it matters" for long-running tasks; Codex integration particularly noted. An internal GPT-5.5 version proved a new elementary Ramsey number result — Erdos Problem #1014.
Equal-weight GAI TMT 4 Horsemen Index up 131% YTD, hit all-time high. NVIDIA +4.3% Friday, first record close since October; extended +5% after hours. KLAC at all-time high with limited chatter. Comfort Systems USA Q1: +56.5% YoY revenue, electrical segment +88%, mechanical +47%, gross margins 26.3%. Power equipment and data center construction demand described as "generational super cycle." Dylan notes: "Everyone hype on the TL hype about buying bottlenecks not realizing they're really just getting cyclicals exposure in a generational super cycle but the music is playing so keep dancing."
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↳ Broad semis call: "MOAR CPU / MOAR ASIC / MOAR GPU / MOAR NETWORKING / MOAR TEST / MOAR SUBSTRATE / MOAR EUV / MOAR METROLOGY / MOAR ETCH & DEP / MOAR COWOS / MOAR NAND / MOAR DRAM / MOAR EDA / MOAR CPO / MOAR COPPER"
"Software vs Semis new all-time low." BofA upgrade note on Twilio called "straight garbage" by at least one prominent observer. Iconiq selling VC stake, Eminence closing, two large page-1 holders trimming. Record shorting in software amid semis rally — described as improving technical setup for软件的反向投资者. One observer switching workflows from Notion to local MD files: "It's just not worth more than doubling our spend for that one unlock."
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↳ The "seat to agent" framework: SaaS will layer agent spend on top of seat spend — agent work increases far beyond what a person can do, rendering seat cost "inconsequential."
Equity analysts now expecting highest earnings growth in decades outside GFC and Covid recovery. EM stocks at 12 PE with actual earnings growth accelerating at fastest pace in decades. Oil December down, stocks up — short oil outright, long puts on equities suggested. Higher energy prices expected to negatively affect Europe's manufacturing sector but less severe than 2022/23. One quant modeler: system "as fragile and overdamped as I have ever seen" since developing the framework 35 years ago.
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↳ Trump's TACO behavior on Iran oil: regime change "as a service" allows pricing norms to break; Saudi/UAE reportedly willing to absorb lower oil prices for geopolitical stability. Bears repeatedly burned — post-Liberation Day, post-treasury rout, post-Iran.
Second-largest holding after Intel. Makes data center power and water cooling infrastructure — power shelves, busbars, rack-integrated cooling, server builds for hyperscalers. Increasingly supplying AI silicon vendors themselves. Historically benefited from AI datacenter capex wave same as EMS cohort — but street underpricing the position. At current semis multiples, the market isn't pricing the ASIC supplier inflection.
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↳ Analyst noted: "Can't tell you which company to invest in there but maybe it's the one I will control…" Hint dropped.
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